Addressing a historic formula shortage for desperate parents of babies in the US

The White House, the Department of Health and Human Services, the Department of Agriculture, and the Food and Drug Administration

Challenge

In mid-2022, a manufacturer product recall on infant formula, combined with weakened supply chains after the COVID-19 pandemic, caused a significant decrease in the availability of infant formula, especially specialty formula for babies with intolerances, allergies, and metabolic issues. Parents and caregivers of infants who did not have other options to feed their children became desperate and panicked.

In May 2022, the actual in-stock rates of formula were only 47%, a significant drop from the post-COVID-19 average of 85-90%. However, there was no centralized system to keep track of these rates. The commercially available data sources showed conflicting, and often much higher, in-stock rates. By June 2022, retailers reported historically low in-stock rates, as low as 19% for formula at some major retailers. As most infants in the U.S. depend on formula for food, this shortage caused concern among parents, leading to panic-buying that worsened the situation.

Solution

In order for the federal government to design solutions, it needed real-time data about the amount of formula available in any given location. USDS was called on to help with this rapid response project. USDS quickly created a weekly, caregiver-centric pulse monitor, and convened all available data sources, including quantitative retailer data and qualitative accounts of caregivers posting photos of empty shelves online. The monitor served as a consistent source of information for leaders across the various agencies, worked on the shortage, provided vital data, and importantly, negated myths and inaccurate data.

Research and Data Analysis

• USDS found that families needing specialty formula were the most vulnerable when they substituted the specialty formula for generic formulas due to lack of supply.
• USDS also determined that families who use The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC program) buy 56% of all the formula sold in the U.S. and that these families are more likely to be low-income, non-white, and rural.

The USDS project team collaborated with retailers and manufacturers and conducted several data analyses to understand the supply chain better and identify areas where government policy could make the most positive impact.

The results of the data analysis supported the development of Operation Fly Formula, which authorized the U.S. Department of Defense to use their planes to fly infant formula from other countries that the Food and Drug Administration had determined met the U.S.’s health and safety standards into the country. President Biden also leveraged the Defense Production Act to quickly ramp up greater manufacturing capacity.

Impact

By October 2022, infant formula in-stock rates were at 40% and climbing, double the stock available at the height of the crisis. USDS also helped the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) relaunch its Infant Formula webpage in May 2022 by conducting user research with parents to learn their questions and asking doctors to provide medically sound answers. This research informed the content and a new visual hierarchy for the webpage.

By the numbers